Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-22 188.581464 229.795023 281.081764 350.796419 445.021874 5.709099e+02 7.571510e+02
2024-12-29 150.025433 201.229944 274.052374 389.853628 579.135823 8.966840e+02 1.523333e+03
2025-01-05 120.611290 171.912185 251.512387 392.630680 658.383028 1.195130e+03 2.576726e+03
2025-01-12 104.178413 155.864624 241.968516 409.461065 767.979752 1.636288e+03 4.635272e+03
2025-01-19 88.939425 137.662382 223.049059 400.943542 821.532046 2.006632e+03 7.409171e+03
2025-01-26 83.645151 134.701041 229.718203 445.061848 1023.725734 3.036152e+03 1.744220e+04
2025-02-02 78.387719 130.548647 232.786434 482.591690 1239.888516 4.511904e+03 4.631265e+04
2025-02-09 73.262060 125.559782 232.769351 512.922111 1464.003375 6.603134e+03 1.515684e+05
2025-02-16 67.962240 119.243206 228.354596 530.280530 1664.197433 9.291960e+03 6.774917e+05
2025-02-23 63.169800 113.134548 223.003809 543.217065 1866.182851 1.303694e+04 8.046960e+06
2025-03-02 57.517602 104.410064 209.796399 527.890436 1932.657504 1.602978e+04 1.059662e+09
2025-03-09 52.695869 96.816997 197.939145 513.077297 1994.576788 1.968963e+04 NaN
2025-03-16 47.879973 88.889966 184.498379 490.964147 2015.414528 2.357354e+04 NaN
2025-03-23 47.190720 89.941426 194.030418 553.053544 2635.562411 5.261350e+04 NaN
2025-03-30 44.267273 85.544759 188.397331 557.636059 2897.067268 8.367999e+04 NaN
2025-04-06 42.397799 83.328806 188.265662 584.412906 3402.538937 1.759280e+05 NaN
2025-04-13 39.481824 78.285077 179.267449 570.867144 3541.602505 2.699519e+05 NaN
2025-04-20 39.156549 79.411328 188.297761 641.535545 4750.765295 1.607474e+06 NaN
2025-04-27 38.428952 79.446037 194.147981 702.526884 6165.489414 3.846641e+07 NaN
2025-05-04 37.410960 78.610803 197.156217 752.383978 7754.118903 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 36.027691 76.660104 196.193583 781.139008 9224.628895 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 34.615832 74.471078 194.036946 802.671783 10790.360950 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 32.584679 70.421802 184.862641 777.170283 11058.143319 NaN NaN